Yes, it’s that time again. The odds for the 2009 Nobel Prize in Literature are officially up. A lot of old familiars are in the top range. Given Horace Engdahl’s comments and the subsequent backlash last year, you can bet the Americans are not likely to pick up the award. A lot of people like to cite percentages of nationalities that have won and say that the Americans have actually not been doing so badly, considering the Yanks have claimed 11% of the titles over the years.
Problem is, Americans publish more than 11% of literary fiction out there today. And when you look at even the second tier of top American writers, it seem pretty absurd it’s been as long as it has been since the old Nobel has found its hands into the way of an American. I think a lot of people feel the Nobel has been de-legitamized. While I see their point and agree to some extent, I’m simply happy the Swedes have made their prejudice clear.
My prediction: Adonis. It’s a numbers game. He’s been at the top for too many years now.